Planning Futures: Strategic Foresight as a Method of Innovation
In this essay, I examine the principles and discussions of Richard Lum’s “4 Steps to the Future” guide, and how the method can be applied to influence an organization’s growth and adaptability amidst constant change.
To successfully launch a foresight initiative within an organization, several elements must be addressed. The company should not be in a “crisis mode,” senior management must endorse the initiative, appropriate time and resources need to be allocated to the project, and other organizational planning processes should welcome the foresight outcomes. Furthermore, recognizing leadership biases and ensuring diverse perspectives are present become crucial aspects for overcoming unexpected challenges and capturing potential opportunities.
Embarking on a strategic foresight journey starts with two fundamental questions:
- How has your industry or community evolved over time, and
- What triggered those changes?
Delving into these matters establishes a robust basis for studying historical drivers that could impact current situations. By analyzing past patterns of change and pinpointing modern forces that could hinder or halt similar shifts today, we can create informed projections about potential challenges and opportunities facing organizations.
Future Trends
A vital aspect of future-oriented innovation is understanding trends — historical changes over time backed by some sort of quantitative data. Though they don’t dictate or guarantee specific future outcomes, trends provide valuable insights into evolving systemic issues and areas affected by ongoing transformations.
It’s essential to remember that trends illustrate past changes rather than directly indicating future directions.
While trends represent well-established patterns, there are also subtle hints of potential change on the horizon, generally refered to as “weak signals”, that can give us clues about future shifts. These might include developing technologies, anticipated public policy concerns, or innovative concepts gaining traction. Monitoring emerging issues enables organizations to better prepare for possible upcoming changes that could disrupt the status quo.
Foresight vs. “What-If” Thinking
You might wonder what distinguishes effective foresight or futures research from mere “what-if” thinking. The key is applying a well-structured approach to forecasting challenging possibilities. Futures scenarios differ from random “what-if” exercises by thoroughly examining assumptions and exploring a broad spectrum of potential outcomes.
When “crafting” scenarios, it’s crucial to focus on understanding the driving forces at play. They could be cultural, environmental, technological, or political elements powerful enough to shape the future landscape. By examining these forces and considering various combinations, we can produce diverse narratives that offer valuable insights into how events may unfold.
As our scenarios take form, they become a tool for spotting potential opportunities and challenges for organizations. Analyzing the implications of each scenario helps decision-makers prepare for the future by grasping the dynamics at play and making strategic decisions that account for possible variations in events.
For instance, consider a healthcare organization looking to develop new solutions for telemedicine. The central issue might be the impact of emerging technologies on patient care. A futures thinker could create scenarios that explore different combinations of technological advancements, government regulations, and societal attitudes toward remote care. And then equip those narratives with the findings, so that the organization can better comprehend the range of possibilities.
Exploring future scenarios
Scenarios are descriptions of alternative potential futures — not predictions or forecasts — intended to stimulate thought by examining how things might evolve over time. Lum’s book emphasizes that
scenario planning success “is not whether or not you got the future right; it’s whether or not they inspired and informed action that, years later, you are happy to have taken.” (Lum, 2022, p. 54)
This underlines the importance of using scenarios as a catalyst for actions aimed at achieving better outcomes.
Creating scenarios is all about telling stories about how things might change. To do this effectively, one must first identify a focal issue — an area of possible change with significant organizational impact — and establish an appropriate timeframe far enough into the future to allow changes to occur, yet still relevant for decision-making purposes.
Note that foresights too close to the present (18 months, for example) can constrain people that there may not be enough time for important changes to occur, while horizons too far away (i.e. 50 years from now) could demotivate them for sounding irrelevant in the decision making context you are trying to inform.
What’s next
Guiding organizations through strategic foresight and innovation requires:
- Understanding foundational principles.
- Establishing a conducive internal climate.
- Examining historical patterns of change.
- Capturing trends and emerging issues.
By adopting these methods outlined in Richard Lum’s “4 Steps to the Future,” we can position ourselves and our organizations to thrive in an ever-changing world riddled with uncertainties, yet rich with possibilities.
Further readings
Dos Santos, T. R. (2023). The future, backwards: a futures-based innovation tool for corporate strategy.
Dos Santos, T. R. (2023). 5 steps to think strategically about the future.
Dos Santos, T. R. (2023). Imaging Futures: Why Futures Thinking is one of the most important skills to develop.
Dunne, A. & Raby, F. (2013). Speculative everything: design, fiction, and social dreaming. MIT Press.
Lum, R. A. K. (2022). 4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight. FutureScribe.
Smith, S. & Ashby, M. (2020). How to future: leading and sense-making in an age of hyperchange. Koan Page
